Critical Minerals Brazil Rare Earths

Brazil Critical Minerals: balancing risk, returns & supply-chain resilience

An original intelligence assessment of Brazil's critical-minerals and rare-earth sector across six risk dimensions, covering sixteen fully mapped projects.

Format Original Intelligence Assessment
Published 2026
In partnership with Geosyntec Consultants
Brazil Critical Minerals Intelligence Report cover

Overview

Brazil's critical-minerals and rare-earth sector is one of the most strategically significant, and least transparently assessed, supply-chain environments in the world. This report cuts through the headline reserves data to give decision-makers a clear-eyed view of where the real risks and the real opportunities sit.

We assess sixteen individual projects across six risk dimensions, combining proprietary open-source intelligence, satellite imagery analysis, quantitative financial modelling, and GIS infrastructure mapping. The output is a single, decision-grade picture of where institutional capital can move with confidence, and where it can't.

Audience Investors, offtakers, legal & compliance teams, and institutions making decisions in Brazil's mineral markets.
Coverage 16 fully assessed and mapped projects across the rare-earth and critical-minerals sector.
Methodology Proprietary OSINT, satellite imagery analysis, financial modelling, and GIS infrastructure mapping.
Lead analysts Dr. James Reeves · Manon-Catherine Balbinot
Six risk dimensions

The risks we measure.

Each of the sixteen projects in the assessment is graded across the same six axes, so the comparisons are real, not approximated.

01. Geopolitical

State posture & foreign exposure

Federal- and state-level political alignment, foreign-investment scrutiny, and exposure to shifting commodity diplomacy.

02. Regulatory

Permitting & licensing pathways

ANM, IBAMA, and state-level regulatory frameworks; permit timelines, contestability, and renewal exposure.

03. ESG & compliance

Environmental and social licence

Water, tailings, indigenous-land considerations, and the gap between the formal compliance record and the on-ground reality.

04. Institutional integrity

Beneficial ownership & counterparties

Ownership-chain mapping, politically-exposed-person exposure, and the integrity of the local counterparty universe.

05. Financial

Capex, opex & project economics

Quantitative modelling of project economics under varying commodity-price and FX scenarios.

06. Infrastructure

Logistics & power dependency

GIS-mapped power, water, road, rail, and port dependencies. The bottlenecks that determine whether a project can actually ship.

Engage

Brief your next decision with the full picture.

Initial conversations are confidential and obligation-free. We respond to every enquiry within one business day.