Brazil Critical Minerals: balancing risk, returns & supply-chain resilience
An original intelligence assessment of Brazil's critical-minerals and rare-earth sector across six risk dimensions, covering sixteen fully mapped projects.
Overview
Brazil's critical-minerals and rare-earth sector is one of the most strategically significant, and least transparently assessed, supply-chain environments in the world. This report cuts through the headline reserves data to give decision-makers a clear-eyed view of where the real risks and the real opportunities sit.
We assess sixteen individual projects across six risk dimensions, combining proprietary open-source intelligence, satellite imagery analysis, quantitative financial modelling, and GIS infrastructure mapping. The output is a single, decision-grade picture of where institutional capital can move with confidence, and where it can't.
The risks we measure.
Each of the sixteen projects in the assessment is graded across the same six axes, so the comparisons are real, not approximated.
State posture & foreign exposure
Federal- and state-level political alignment, foreign-investment scrutiny, and exposure to shifting commodity diplomacy.
Permitting & licensing pathways
ANM, IBAMA, and state-level regulatory frameworks; permit timelines, contestability, and renewal exposure.
Environmental and social licence
Water, tailings, indigenous-land considerations, and the gap between the formal compliance record and the on-ground reality.
Beneficial ownership & counterparties
Ownership-chain mapping, politically-exposed-person exposure, and the integrity of the local counterparty universe.
Capex, opex & project economics
Quantitative modelling of project economics under varying commodity-price and FX scenarios.
Logistics & power dependency
GIS-mapped power, water, road, rail, and port dependencies. The bottlenecks that determine whether a project can actually ship.
Brief your next decision with the full picture.
Initial conversations are confidential and obligation-free. We respond to every enquiry within one business day.